Does Islam Explain Homicide? A Paired Cross-National Comparison of Religion, State Capacity, and Lethal Violence

Abstract

Existing cross-national studies have not resolved whether lower homicide rates reported in some Muslim-majority countries reflect religion, institutional conditions, the composition of comparison groups, or uneven death registration. This study examined whether Muslim-majority status provided a stable explanation for recorded homicide when countries were compared with broadly similar cases and administrative capacity was considered. It used descriptive comparative research based on secondary data and a focused literature review. Six countries were organised into two core pairs and one sensitivity pair and examined through homicide rates, Muslim population share, Government Effectiveness, conflict status, and death-registration completeness. The evidence produced no uniform religious pattern. Albania recorded a higher homicide rate than North Macedonia, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic recorded a lower rate than Moldova. The Jordan-Armenia comparison was too affected by conflict to support a firm inference. Government Effectiveness did not follow homicide consistently across the core pairs, while mortality-registration data could not show how accurately killings entered national records. The findings did not establish Islam as an independent explanation of homicide. Muslim-majority status remained dependent on the selected comparator and on the institutions through which violent deaths were classified and recorded.