Displaced into Marginality: Climate Mobility, Precarious Urban Incorporation and Social Exclusion in Coastal Semarang

Abstract

risk, although relocation did not necessarily resolve the insecurities that shape urban marginality. This study examined how climate-related mobility and adaptation were associated with precarious urban incorporation in coastal Semarang. A structured qualitative secondary analysis was conducted using eight peer-reviewed empirical studies published between 2008 and 2025, with one additional study used as contextual support. Evidence was coded across economic, housing, service or institutional, and social domains. The synthesis showed the strongest convergence around housing insecurity, followed by social dependence or disruption, while economic and institutional constraints appeared less consistently but remained substantively important. Existing studies also showed strong reasons for staying, incremental household adaptation, and relocation outcomes that could reduce hazard exposure without guaranteeing secure urban incorporation. The findings suggested that climate-related vulnerability could become socially durable through unequal access to secure housing, livelihoods, services, and social attachment. The article advanced precarious urban incorporation as an interpretive framework and vulnerability-to-marginality conversion as a cautious theoretical proposition rather than a tested causal pathway.