Are We Safer, or Just Older? Testing the Demographic Trap Through Cross-National Homicide Rates and Age-Conditional Ranking Instability
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This study examined whether older national populations were associated with lower homicide rates and how demographic adjustment affected comparative rankings. A matched sample of 78 countries and territories was assembled for 2023 using intentional homicide rates from World Bank–UNODC sources and old-age dependency ratios from United Nations demographic data. The association was summarized using Spearman correlation. An additional rank-sensitivity exercise compared observed homicide rankings with an age-conditioned descriptive model. Old-age dependency was negatively associated with reported homicide rates, with a Spearman coefficient of −0.599. The conditioned index produced rank concordance of 0.731 with the observed ordering and a median absolute displacement of 10 positions. Rank changes varied substantially with the assumed strength of adjustment. These model outputs were not direct age-standardized mortality rates, and the ecological association did not establish a causal effect of population ageing. Differences between offender age and victim age, together with uneven national reporting practices, further restricted inference. The findings identified a risk of overinterpreting homicide rankings while establishing why population composition, victim-specific mortality, and data provenance needed to be distinguished in comparative research.
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