Recorded Homicide as Lethal Violence and Subnational Spending Priorities in Indonesia

Abstract

This study examined whether police-recorded homicide was associated with realized provincial spending priorities in Indonesia. A cross-sectional ecological design used secondary official data for 2018. Homicide events reported by Statistics Indonesia were aligned with provincial jurisdictions and converted to rates per 100,000 population. Provincial expenditure shares for public order and security, health, and social protection were drawn from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance. Descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares models with robust standard errors were estimated with population and gross regional domestic product per capita as basic adjustment variables. Recorded homicide varied substantially across the 31 aligned jurisdictions. Higher homicide was not associated with consistently larger expenditure shares. The public order estimate was negative and uncertain, the health estimate was also negative, and the social protection estimate was close to zero. The findings suggested that recorded homicide did not map directly onto provincial spending composition, partly because policing authority and provincial fiscal responsibility were institutionally separated.