The Homicide Hysteresis Problem and Persistent Lethal Violence after Temporary Macroeconomic Shocks
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This study examined homicide hysteresis as a bounded form of post-shock persistence in lethal violence. It used secondary country-year indicators from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Development Indicators, and Worldwide Governance Indicators to define severe macroeconomic contractions, subsequent economic recovery, intentional homicide, and pre-shock government effectiveness. The design separated shock identification from later recovery and specified country and year fixed effects with event-time indicators for the dynamic analysis. Available global homicide data showed that the world rate moved from 5.4 per 100,000 in 2019 to 5.3 in 2020, 5.5 in 2021, 5.3 in 2022, and 5.2 in 2023. This aggregate pattern did not support a universal hysteresis claim and instead highlighted the need to examine heterogeneous national trajectories. The study therefore treated hysteresis conservatively as continued homicide displacement after economic recovery rather than as permanent structural change. Government effectiveness was specified as a moderator of recovery rather than a causal mechanism. The framework aligned a strong theoretical question with standard secondary-data methods and bounded observational claims.
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