Criminological Doppelgängers? Similar Starting Homicide Rates and Divergent Change in Six Latin American Countries
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Abstract
Cross-national homicide rates are commonly compared across countries with very different demographic and institutional settings. Two countries may begin with similar rates but subsequently move in opposite directions. Such a contrast is easy to describe yet difficult to interpret if the countries were chosen after their later trends became known. This article examines five annual homicide observations for six Latin American countries from the World Bank, covering 2019–2023. The comparison uses descriptive rate changes, annual slopes, and sensitivity checks against an earlier endpoint. Argentina and Chile began at 5.13 and 4.81 deaths per 100,000 people in 2019 but recorded changes of −0.64 and +1.54 rate points by 2023. Costa Rica experienced the largest increase within this selected group, although much of its movement occurred in the final year. These findings establish short-period descriptive contrasts, not statistically matched countries or causal explanations. The article also specifies the data that would be needed to test the broader claim that countries similar in homicide rates and structural conditions later follow different trajectories. The distinction between initial resemblance on a single indicator and multidimensional comparison is essential to a defensible interpretation of cross-national homicide statistics.
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